October 29, 2024
📰 FEATURE STORY
Is the LAC agreement with China a victory for India?
Over the past few years, diplomatic relations between India and China have been less than ideal. Ever since the clash in the Galwan Valley at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 2020 that resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers and 4 Chinese soldiers, China and India have been unable to agree on a border agreement.
That has now changed. In a significant diplomatic breakthrough, the countries agreed to resume patrolling at key friction points following years of standoffs since the Galwan clash. It’s a big step forward in the disengagement process, particularly in sensitive areas of Depsang Plains and Demchok. While some call this a win for India and its relations with China, does it go far enough to be a diplomatic victory?
Context
The Galwan clash was the first fatal confrontation between India and China since 1975. Since the 2020 skirmish, both countries have tried to cool the temperatures diplomatically. Despite military-level discussions, tensions remained high over the years. In January 2021, a face-off left troops on both sides injured near Sikkim. In December 2022, troops clashed for the first time in over a year near the Tawang sector in Arunachal Pradesh.
The LAC is the border between India and China. It passes through Ladakh, Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh and is divided into three parts. The Western region has parts of Ladakh on the Indian side and Tibet and Xinjiang on the Chinese side. The central region is part of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh on the Indian side and the Tibet Autonomous Region on the Chinese side. The eastern region has Arunachal Pradesh on the Indian side and the Tibet Autonomous Region on the Chinese side.
The LAC received legal recognition in the agreements between both countries in 1993 and 1996. The 1996 agreement states in part, “No activity on either side will proceed beyond the Line of Actual Control.” The problem is that the LAC isn’t properly demarcated. Both countries haven’t been able to agree on territory – which is Indian and which is Chinese.
India sees the LAC as the 3,488 km-long border. China sees it as a 2,000-km-long border. China has slowly but surely undertaken a massive infrastructure build-up and introduced new weapons and equipment along the LAC. Thousands of troops are on guard on each side. As talks were underway over the past few years, the situation, according to Indian officials, was described as “stable but unpredictable”.
One agreement reached at the Corps Commander-level talks helped create buffer zones at the friction points. Both sides agreed to retreat an equal distance to prevent further flare-ups. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and satellites were used to verify if China was keeping its word.
Over the past several weeks, representatives from both countries were locked in diplomatic and military negotiations. It comes after discussions helped disengagement at flashpoints like Pangong Tso, Gogra, and Hot Springs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping had little contact since the Galwan clash. Following a five-year hiatus, India and China held bilateral talks on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia. The agreement was portrayed as a significant victory for India and Indo-China relations. How far is this true?
VIEW: A win for India
The agreement might not signal an end to all hostilities, but it’s a big step forward for India. It seems the ice in ties between both countries could be melting as the announcement is a definitive breakthrough in the four-and-a-half-year stalemate. If patrolling soon resumes, it could open pathways for total disengagement and resolution of issues that arose in 2020. India has been patient and persistent in its discussions with Chinese officials. It was steadfast that normal relations would rest on the border issue being first resolved.
If issues over Depsang and Demchok, pending since the Galwan clash, are sorted out as promised, it could be fertile ground to restore some trust. That’s significant in a relationship fraught with mutual suspicions for decades. It’s especially important for India since China has become an economic and military powerhouse in the new millennium. This latest agreement doesn’t mean India will let its guard down. Quite the contrary, since security issues persist.
India recalibrated ties with China across several sectors, from foreign policy to economy to infrastructure to people-to-people engagement. China’s steadfastness was met with India’s resoluteness every step of the way. Thanks to that persistence, the latest agreement can be a starting point for both countries to rebuild confidence. That will lead to better economic and trade relations. China needs this, given its economy and tanking property market.
COUNTERVIEW: Can’t call it a victory
Whatever the agreement turns out to be, as the fine print remains to be seen, China will adopt any policy that it finds useful for its future economic and military goals. That could result in it shifting goalposts. Chief of Army Staff Upendra Dwivedi has said China can’t be trusted irrespective of how good the patrolling agreement is. When dealing with China, facts on the ground might not add up to the rhetoric. China purposefully likes to keep the policy and its positions opaque.
This is perhaps evident in China’s official readout of the talks. There was no mention of a patrolling agreement. “Solution plan” was the operative word used. China still believes it has the upper hand and the initiative and will respond only when it sees fit. It wants India to be on its timetable.
India’s military responses since 2020 have denied China a strategic win. However, the latest agreement can’t be called a breakthrough.
China is unlikely to roll back easily. Patrolling without disengagement is a difficult thing to quantify. Any de-escalation and de-militarisation will depend on some improvement in bilateral ties. The announcement ahead of the BRICS summit was more of an optics play. China has shown that it can mobilise thousands of troops and equipment to reach friction points. An early settlement is unlikely.
Reference Links:
- How India and China arrived at a patrolling agreement along the LAC – India Today
- Do not oversell India-China détente; while not a mean feat, it is a limited tactical manoeuvre for a very specific goal – Firstpost
- LAC Pact: Will China’s Words Match Its Actions? – NDTV
- Can India trust China amid talks over disengagement along LAC? What experts say – India Today
- China doesn’t respect India’s security concerns or peaceful efforts. Where is mutual trust? – The Print
- India-China LAC ‘solution plan’ will follow Beijing’s timetable. That’s a different calendar – The Print
What is your opinion on this?
(Only subscribers can participate in polls)
a) The LAC agreement with China is a victory for India.
b) The LAC agreement with China isn’t a victory for India.
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