July 23, 2024
📰 FEATURE STORY
Can the AIADMK make a comeback?
Tamil Nadu has always been a fascinating case study in electoral politics. The dominant Dravidian parties have meant national ones like the Congress and especially the BJP, have struggled to gain a foothold in the state. The Dravidian giants, AIADMK and DMK, have been the ones who’ve traded blows in electoral contests.
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the DMK cruised to victory. The AIADMK have all but been wiped out. The once mighty party with former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa as its figurehead has fallen. The party has been in disarray with warring factions. Can they rise from the ashes?
Context
Politics and cinema mix frequently and quite easily in Tamil Nadu. It’s how the AIADMK got its start. It was formed in 1972 by actor-turned-politician Maruthur Gopala Ramachandran, otherwise known as MGR. In fact, he broke away from the DMK to start the party.
Its initial success was mainly built on MGR’s enormous popularity. It amassed a million supporters within a couple of months of its launch. Within a year, it tasted electoral success when it won a seat in a by-election for the state legislative assembly.
Its first alliance was with the Congress in 1975. It was one of the parties that supported the imposition of emergency rule by then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. MGR became Chief Minister in 1977 after the party won 130 out of 234 seats in the Assembly elections. Success continued in the 1980 and 1984 elections, and MGR returned as Chief Minister both times.
When MGR died in 1987, things began to change. Jayalalithaa, mentored by MGR and his wife Janaki Ramachandran, laid claim to his mantle. A split into factions didn’t last long, and Jayalalithaa emerged as the leader of a newly unified party. Since the state was highly polarised, the AIADMK and DMK frequently formed and broke their alliance with Congress and non-Congress parties.
At the national level, the AIADMK had a modest presence in the Lok Sabha. It was usually associated with the Congress in the 1990s. There was a one-year period when it allied with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 1998-99. In the decades that followed, Jayalalithaa became the face of the party.
The death of Jayalalithaa in 2016 was when things began to go south. Two factions emerged vying for control – one led by former Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) and another by former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam (OPS). That split, the infighting, and the breaking of its alliance with the BJP ahead of the 2024 elections have left the party as a shadow of its former self.
VIEW: Can pick up the pieces
There’s a silver lining to the 2024 elections for the AIADMK. Its vote share slightly increased from 19.39% in 2019 to 20.46%. As far as general secretary EPS is concerned, the results aren’t a full and fair reflection of the people’s will. While the BJP might have eaten up some of the AIADMK’s vote share, that’s probably because the Dravidian giant decided to keep a low profile this time. The party didn’t field many strong candidates.
Earlier this month, EPS laid out the party’s vision for the next big test – the 2026 Assembly elections. He has launched a drive to bring together the warring factions following calls for unity from former Jayalalithaa aide Sasikala and the OPS side. At a meeting of the party cadre in Chennai, EPS heard feedback on the party’s poll performance. Those who walked out on EPS after the 2021 Assembly polls now want to present a unified front.
The seeds were planted when the MGR and Jayalalithaa loyalists recently formed a “peace committee” to discuss a merger. If a merger with the BJP isn’t on the cards for the 2026 elections, and it looks like there won’t be, then there’s always the possibility of aligning with smaller parties like the Social Democratic Party of India and the pro-Tamil Naam Tamilar Katchi. The AIADMK has learnt the lesson that their anti-BJP stance didn’t trickle down.
COUNTERVIEW: Too many obstacles
The 2026 elections remain a tall mountain to climb for the AIADMK. The likelihood of the peace committee or any other efforts to unify the factions succeeding is grim. The prospect of aligning with smaller parties with little electoral presence won’t do the AIADMK any good. For example, aligning with Naam Tamilar Katchi, staunchly anti-Dravidian and pro-Tamil Eelam, could be risky.
The AIADMK is shrinking. While the BJP hasn’t won any seats, it increased its vote share. The DMK is dominant. The AIADMK’s challenge is presenting something that’s pro-Dravidian and anti-BJP. However, that’s the formula the DMK has already employed to great success. Several AIADMK cadre left the party after the 2021 Assembly elections, 2024 elections, and the recent Vikravandi assembly bypoll. The DMK won across all three contests.
Another question that remains is what role will Sasikala play? She notably wanted the party to coalesce around her after Jayalalithaa’s death. EPS and OPS had other ideas. Since she’s back in the fold now, is it water under the bridge? Are there still tensions simmering? The challenge will be to get the factions working as one cohesive unit. Easier said than done. The AIADMK is at risk of being pushed to third place in the state.
Reference Links:
- Birthplace of AIADMK, gave 6 CMs — why southern Tamil Nadu is crucial to state’s politics – The Print
- Dravidian parties at a crossroads – Frontline
- AIADMK reduced to Gounder-Thevar outfits. Unite now or brace for more splits – The Print
- We overcame betrayals; will forge a strong alliance in 2026, says EPS – Times of India
- AIADMK’s Existential Crisis: Can it Rise From The Ashes? – News18
- AIADMK builds case against reunification – Times of India
- With zero seats & BJP eating into vote share, what is AIADMK’s future after 3rd defeat in a row – The Print
- Tamil Nadu: EPS in a dilemma over future of AIADMK – Deccan Chronicle
What is your opinion on this?
(Only subscribers can participate in polls)
a) The AIADMK can make a comeback.
b) The AIADMK can’t make a comeback.
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