August 8, 2024
📰 FEATURE STORY
Does Sheikh Hasina’s exit spell bad news for India-Bangladesh relations?
Bangladesh is on the boil. Events over the past month culminated with the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina following widespread anti-government protests. The Army said it will form an interim government, but who knows how long that will hold.
For India, relations with Bangladesh go back a long way. There are genuine historical ties that bind both countries together. Now, India is in a tricky situation. The government hasn’t publicly outlined its plans to handle and navigate this neighbourhood crisis. Is this another neighbour India might be forced to be in conflict with, or are there better days ahead?
Context
Sheikh Hasina became a widely controversial figure as Prime Minister. Under her rule, the country’s GDP has grown but hasn’t translated to economic growth for many citizens. There’s high unemployment among the youth, soaring inflation, and a lack of viable economic opportunities for everyday Bangladeshis. This has been the source of ongoing tension.
Hasina’s party, the Awami League, constantly espoused a zero-tolerance policy towards corruption. Yet, the government has been dogged with bribery, money laundering, and nepotism scandals.
Following its landslide victory in 2008, the Awami League, with Hasina at the helm, has eroded the country’s democratic fabric. In 2011, the government scrapped an agreement that allowed a 90-day caretaker administration to organise elections and oversee the transfer of power. Activists, human rights defenders, and opposition leaders have been suppressed and detained. Criticism or satirisation of the government has been criminalised.
As far as the recent protests are concerned, the 50% quota system in government positions reserved for various groups, including 30% for the descendants of freedom fighters who fought in the 1971 War of Independence, has been a point of contention. Highly qualified civil service positions have become out of reach for the country’s youngsters, many of whom are unemployed.
What didn’t help was that many of these positions were filled by supporters of the ruling Awami League. Bowing to student-led protests, Hasina abolished this system in 2018. But this June, the country’s high court ruled that the move was illegal. A fresh round of protests began.
Things began to go downhill. In July, several of the country’s public universities saw walkouts by faculty and students over new pension reforms that would reduce salaries. While the protests were initially peaceful, a speech by Hasina changed that. In it, she referred to students as “razakar”, a derogatory term that dates back to the 1971 war to identify pro-Pakistani collaborators.
Things began to get out of hand as students were attacked. The controversial paramilitary group, the Rapid Action Battalion, was deployed. Estimates stated that over 200 students were killed, including at least 32 children. Schools and universities were closed, the internet was suspended, and a curfew was imposed. As thousands marched to Dhaka in defiance of the curfew, Hasina resigned and left the country.
India has seen all of this unfold and so far remained silent. Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a meeting on the matter but we don’t know what’s the play. Is this the beginning of a new uncertain chapter for relations?
VIEW: An uncertain future
For India, this is the latest neighbour to fall, so to speak. It comes just three years after President Ghani’s government fell in Kabul to the Taliban. That was advantage-Pakistan and more headaches for India. In Hasina, India saw a friend and ally, even though other countries and human rights activists criticised her government and its track record. That friend and ally is no longer in power and fled the country.
Over the past 15 years under the Awami League, both countries agreed on several connectivity projects, especially benefiting India’s landlocked northeastern states. New Delhi pledged nearly $8 billion in loans to fund several development projects under Hasina. Even with Hasina and her family’s historic ties with China, that wasn’t much of a threat to India. That could now change with an interim government formed by the army.
From a regional security standpoint, Hasina was pivotal in combating anti-India terrorist groups, particularly in the border regions. Economically speaking, trade between the countries reached $13 billion in 2023-24. Internet disruptions have affected transactions, and agricultural exports will be hit. Last October, there were discussions about a free trade agreement to reduce or eliminate customs duties on traded goods. Hopes of this coming to fruition are all but gone.
COUNTERVIEW: Cautiously optimistic
The following weeks will be crucial in assessing what happens in Bangladesh and how India should handle things. Ultimately, a stable Bangladesh is in India’s best interests. There’s some initial good news as Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus was tapped to lead the interim government. Students who led the anti-government protests said they wouldn’t accept a military-led coalition and wanted Yunus at the helm.
There are obvious worries about what happens economically. S&P stated that India’s overall trade position won’t be affected by what’s happening in Bangladesh. While exports from Bangladesh will certainly be affected, there won’t be a meaningful impact on India’s broader trade landscape. Once the new government is in place and things begin to calm down, New Delhi will have the opportunity to restart trade relations.
India was obviously caught off guard by how quickly things changed in Bangladesh. Observers of Bangladeshi politics have said the best course of action for India would be to recognise the movement as one driven by the common people. Call it a people’s revolution. While many Bangladeshis didn’t like that India was close to Hasina, now’s the chance to turn the page. By honouring the aspirations of the common people, India could send a positive signal as this new chapter begins.
Reference Links:
- Bangladesh’s protests explained: What led to PM’s ouster and the challenges that lie ahead – The Conversation
- Bangladesh Crisis: India’s Silence so far, Implications and View from Dhaka – The Wire
- Bangladesh unrest: New security challenge for India – Deccan Herald
- Bangladesh: Will India have another Pakistan on its border? – The Economic Times
- Bangladesh crisis: How trade with India could face major disruptions – India Today
- Bangladesh protests: Unrest unlikely to impact India’s overall trade position, says S&P – Mint
What is your opinion on this?
(Only subscribers can participate in polls)
a) Sheikh Hasina’s exit spells bad news for India-Bangladesh relations.
b) Sheikh Hasina’s exit doesn’t spell bad news for India-Bangladesh relations.
Previous poll’s results:
- The Ambani wedding was a bad look for India: 59.1% 🏆
- The Ambani wedding wasn’t a bad look for India: 40.9%
🕵️ BEYOND ECHO CHAMBERS
For the Right:
PwDs to now pay for Puja Khedkar’s actions. New rules have complicated certification process
For the Left:
A budget boost for more women at work