July 17, 2024
📰 FEATURE STORY
NATO @75 – Is its future secure?
When its founding members signed the North Atlantic Treaty in 1949, they declared to unite their efforts for collective defence and preservation of peace and security. The worry was military action by a hostile power. Those words and thoughts came roaring back to the fore when Russia invaded Ukraine, and many eyes turned toward the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
NATO is now 75 years old, and the threats it faces have considerably changed. The array of challenges ranges from terrorism to nuclear proliferation to piracy and cyberattacks. Besides, the rise of right-wing parties and coalitions across Europe, and perhaps another in the US under Trump, will complicate matters further. As the NATO summit in Washington concluded, the question is, what is its future?
Context
As leaders met to commemorate 75 years of NATO, the summit was a critical opportunity to address contemporary security challenges and to shape the alliance’s future. NATO hasn’t been tested to such an extent as it is now, perhaps since its founding, but certainly not since the end of the Cold War.
The alliance now shields 950 million people, stretching from Anchorage to Helsinki, under Article 5 – “an attack on one is an attack on all.” The Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically changed the dynamic in Europe and in NATO. While previous acts of Russian aggression, like the illegal annexation of Crimea, went unanswered, invading Ukraine was the last straw.
European countries began arming themselves and Ukraine. NATO has had to play a delicate balancing act. While wholeheartedly condemning Russia and Vladimir Putin, it doesn’t want to provoke anything more drastic, especially when some voices have blamed NATO for Russia’s actions. What it did do was bring Finland and Sweden into the alliance to further confirm and commit its mission to secure Europe.
Since the invasion began, there has been a call for Ukraine to join the alliance. That wasn’t met with universal approval. Some members are worried about the timing and whether the ongoing conflict would enter their territories. After the 2023 summit, Ukrainians were disappointed since their aspirations to join were stymied.
NATO has its task cut out. Ahead of the recent summit, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said it was a chance for the alliance to plan for the next 75 years. But it also has to deal with the near-term threat of Russia and any possible further aggression, the rise of China, and whether the US will have a President who backs NATO or one who won’t. Given all this, is NATO’s future secure and stable?
VIEW: A relatively stable future
The future is hard to predict, and NATO isn’t capable of doing so. What it can do is hope for the best and prepare for the worst. That’s where NATO 2030 comes in. In 2020, the Secretary-General laid out the priorities for NATO 2030 – remain strong militarily, even stronger politically, and take a more global approach. The alliance needs to adapt and change as the world does, and NATO 2030 will stand it in good stead.
On the ground, things are looking good. With Sweden and Finland now in the alliance, an expanded NATO with 32 members has many advantages in capabilities and geostrategy. Sweden’s entry will reduce NATO’s vulnerabilities on its northwestern flank. It’s a mature democracy with deep ties to NATO members on both sides of the Atlantic. It has more than doubled its defence spending since the Ukraine invasion. Along with Finland, the two Nordic countries extend the alliance’s territory north of the Baltic states to the Russian border.
Some observers see a renewed sense of purpose for NATO and returning to its roots with Russia’s threat to Europe. It’s now building its first serious defence plan since the end of the Cold War. Allies have been stepping up their contributions. 23 of the 32 members are expected to reach their 2% defence spending targets this year. That bodes well for the future. NATO has also been flirting with the Indo-Pacific region, an increasingly important region for international security. It’s a good move to engage with partners there.
COUNTERVIEW: Uncertain and fragile future
While NATO might seem revitalised, there’s something beneath the surface – the alliance suffers from several structural challenges. There’s growing uncertainty about US leadership and a rules-based world order, the debate and discussion around deterrence is erratic, and the focus on Russia seems narrow-minded, which could make this honeymoon period very short-lived.
If NATO’s future depends on Ukraine winning against Russia, which isn’t guaranteed, that would come at a great cost. Arming Ukraine isn’t cheap. Security packages worth billions of dollars will need to be doled out quickly over a long period. We’ve already seen how long this can take in the US with a divided Congress. If there’s a Republican President and Congress come November, then there’s no guarantee that Ukraine will get US military equipment. Attempts to Trump-proof NATO could yield mixed results.
Ukraine’s loss of momentum is rooted in Putin’s ability to deter the alliance from providing the most expensive and robust assistance to Ukraine. Putin has been deft at dangling nuclear coercion to prevent the West from directly intervening. NATO has been forced to adopt a “no boots on the ground” policy. French President Emmanuel Macron has described the war as “existential” for Europe’s future. With far-right coalitions cropping up in Europe, the continent, and indeed NATO’s future, are shaky.
Reference Links:
- Leaders urged to shape NATO for the future, strengthen Allied deterrence and defence and further support Ukraine – NATO
- Does NATO Have a Future? – Foreign Policy
- What Sweden’s Accession Shows About NATO’s Future – US Institute of Peace
- NATO at 75: The Alliance’s future lies in Ukraine’s victory against Russia – Atlantic Council
- Shaping NATO’s Future: 5 Key Priorities for Washington to Build on After the 75th NATO Summit – American Progress
- US allies try to ‘Trump-proof’ Nato – but is that even possible? – BBC
- America Is in Denial About NATO’s Future – Foreign Policy
What is your opinion on this?
(Only subscribers can participate in polls)
a) NATO’s future is secure.
b) NATO’s future is uncertain.
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